Reclaim News receives email from numerous sources around the Synod and
there are phone conversations with people in a position to make insightful
analysis.
The following are some basic assumptions about the election and are only an
opinion, not a prophecy by this writer.
This particular selection of nominees represents the liberal, moderate, and
conservative wings of the LCMS.
Assumption 1. Every new president in the history of the LCMS has always
been elected from the theologically conservative spectrum of the Synod. At
least two presidents moved from being conservative to liberal while in office
and were both voted out of office. Every theologically conservative president
in the history of the Synod retired or died in office.
Assumption 2. "Jesus First" has shown the delegates how liberal
Kieschnick and Muchow really are.
Assumption 3. Of the five nominees, Dr. Hartwig is the third choice of 95%
of the Convention. Should those supporting Kieschnick and Muchow lose their
nominees, they would support Hartwig. Should those who support Wenthe and
Preus lose their nominees, they would support Hartwig.
Assumption 4. Hartwig will be the first of the five candidates to be
removed from the "musical chairs" process of elimination employed to
elect LCMS presidents because he has the least support.
Assumption 5. If there were a choice between any candidate and Hartwig,
Hartwig would defeat every candidate except Rev. Preus. A Preus versus Hartwig
election would be too close to call.
Assumption 6. Reverend Daniel Preus's public support for Wenthe makes him a
more desirable nominee than Wenthe. Preus is the most astute and balanced
theologian of the five candidates. Statically, Preus is the stronger candidate
of the two yet the conservative groups have nominated Wenthe on their
"United List," and Preus has graciously acceded.
Assumption 7. Should Hartwig be removed on the first ballot Preus will be
the next President of the LCMS.
Assumption 8. Should a weak candidate from the right be nominated from the
floor before the election, the delegates will have the opportunity to
reevaluate Hartwig and Hartwig would have a much stronger chance to win the
election. A vote moving to Hartwig on the second or third ballot, would be
intended to keep the less desirable candidate from winning.
Assumption 9. If President Kuhn is nominated from the Convention Floor,
Hartwig will be removed from the ballot after the first vote, but Kuhn will
not make it through the next round of voting.
Assumption 10. Whomever the District Presidents instruct their delegates to
support will be defeated.
These assumptions are only designed to generate some individual analysis by
the delegates and are merely speculation. Only God knows the future and we
pray that His will be done.
There is no perfect election process, but the most unique set of
circumstances in the 154-year history of the Synod highlights at least two
flaws in the LCMS election process.
The first flaw is that there is no contingency plan to address the
possibility of the overwhelming choice for a President dying or being
incapacitated after being nominated. There is no way for the congregations to
resubmit nominations.
The second flaw is that when there is no clear choice of one nominee or
between one of two strong nominees among the five nominees, the "musical
chairs" elimination process doesn't give the delegates a chance to
reconsider all the candidates after the first ballot. Three rounds of
balloting for all five nominees would be much preferred to the present system
and then the elimination process could begin by the fourth vote.
Personally, Preus is my first choice and Hartwig is my second choice. It is
difficult to support a nominee, who more than likely will not survive the
first round of ballots if the slate remains as published.